MAGNA Raises U.S. and Global Ad Forecasts for 2024, But TV Still Expected to Decline

The media investment company now estimates that U.S. ad spending will grow to $374 billion thanks to a stronger-than-anticipated Q1.

The advertising market appears to be rebounding, but it is not equal.

The media investment company MAGNA raised its 2024 U.S. and global advertising forecast, citing “stronger-than-expected ad market in the first quarter and an improvement in the economic outlook.”

The firm now expects the U.S. ad market to total $374 billion this year (that is up from $369 billion, which it projected back in March), an improvement of nearly 11 percent year over year. The global ad market meanwhile will total $927 billion, up 10 percentcompared to last year.

The company also notes that there are a slew of major events happening around the world this year, which coukd move the advertising needle by as much as 1.3 percent.

“A record number of cyclical events are taking place in 2024, including four major sports tournaments (Paris Olympics, UEFA Euro 2024, Copa América hosted by the US, and the ICC T20 Cricket World Cup hosted by the US and the West Indies), and general elections in five major markets (Mexico, India, US, France, and the UK),” MAGNA notes. “The first three elections take place in countries with little or no restrictions to political advertising, therefore moving the needle in terms of advertising sales.”

Despite the good news, not all ad dollars are equal, and that is reflected in MAGNA’s forecast.

Traditional media owners ( Television, Audio, Publishing, OOH, and cinema media), will grow ad revenues by only +3 percent globally in 2024, to reach $272 billion, but that is skewed by the 2024 election, which will disproportionately benefit local TV stations. MAGNA says that non-poilitical TV ads are expected to decline by 4 percent and that “other traditional media will not benefit from such a massive boost.”

“National TV, Audio Media, and Publishing will be flat or down this year, and OOH will be the only other traditional media to grow ad revenues,” the report continues.

So where is the growth? Putting aside local TV, it’s in the “digital pure players” which will be up 13.5 percent. That is driven primarily by tech giants like Google, Amazon and Meta, which MAGNA estimates “now attract a combined 60 percent of total advertising revenues outside China. If you include China, where the three companies don’t operate, MAGNA estimates that they will control a mere 49 percent of global ad sales.

MAGNA’s forecast is also reflected in the ad spend among different business verticals. While food and drink and automotive sectors are seeing strong ad spending, the telecom and media sectors are classified as “slow.”

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